Forecasting association rules across user engagement levels

Abstract

A method of determining one or more association rules includes: specifying site-sequence values for users, wherein each user is identified with one of a plurality of engagement levels, and the site-sequence values indicate a sequence from a first site to a second site for at least one user identified with a corresponding engagement level; determining cumulative site-sequence values from the site-sequence values for combinations of pairs of sites and distinct engagement levels; determining likelihood values from the cumulative site-sequence values, wherein the likelihood values characterize probabilities for sequences between sites at distinct engagement levels; determining one or more association rules for pairs of sites from one or more corresponding likelihood values at one or more engagement levels, wherein each association rule indicates a sequential association between a corresponding pair of sites; determining one or more confidence values for the one or more association rules by calculating one or more variations of the likelihood values across the engagement levels; and saving one or more values for the one or more associations rules (e.g., likelihood values or confidence values).