Method for non-kinetic performance assessment

Abstract

Embodiments of an apparatus and method for assessing non-kinetic weapon performance for negating missile threats are generally described herein. In some embodiments, vulnerabilities of missile threats and techniques for negating the threats are identified. A probability of negation associated with an effectiveness of each of the techniques against the vulnerabilities is calculated. The calculated probability of negation of each technique against each vulnerability are conditioned at a plurality of times associated with a plurality of asymmetric missile defense (AMD) layer elements to produce temporal level probabilities of negation. Each temporal level probabilities of negation are conditioned based on a probability of validation of deployment and a probability of verification of mitigation to produce a battle damage assessment probability of negation. A terminal phase probability of impact failure without any intervention is calculated by combining the battle damage assessment probability of negation for each of plurality of AMD layers.