Dynamic prediction of risk levels for manufacturing operations through leading risk indicators: alarm-based intelligence and insights

Abstract

Provided are methodologies to properly assess and manage operational risks at operations sites, e.g., a manufacturing, production or processing facility, such as a refinery, chemical plant, fluid-catalytic-cracking units, or nuclear energy plant, or a biological or waste management facility, airport or even financial institutions, or at any facility in which operations are often accompanied by risk associated with many high-probability, low-consequence events, often resulting in near-misses. In some operations, processes are monitored by alarms, but the invention operates on either process data or alarm data. The methods are based upon measurement of one or more variables, and/or utilization and management of the concept of 'hidden process near-miss(es)' to identify a change or escalation, if any, in probability of occurrence of an adverse incident. The methodologies combine a plurality of subsets (also useful independently) of dynamically calculated leading risk indicators for dynamic risk management.