Credit-approval decision models

Abstract

Embodiments of the present invention evaluate consumer spending and borrowing patterns and, based thereon, forecast changes in consumer failure to repay rates. Embodiments of the present invention then develop macroeconomic variables that reflect the forecasted changes in consumer failure to repay rates and implement those macroeconomic variables into credit-approval decision models. The implemented macroeconomic variables adjust the decision models' credit-approval thresholds to account for the forecasted changes in consumer failure to repay rates. For example, if forecasts indicate decreasing credit failure to repay rates, then macroeconomic variables are developed and implemented in decision models to reduce credit-approval thresholds, thereby reducing qualifying creditworthiness scores and making it easier to get credit. On the other hand, for example, if forecasts indicate increasing credit failure to repay rates, then macroeconomic variables are developed and implemented in decision models to increase credit-approval thresholds, thereby restricting access to credit and reducing future losses from consumer failures to repay.