The patent badge is an abbreviated version of the USPTO patent document. The patent badge does contain a link to the full patent document.
The patent badge is an abbreviated version of the USPTO patent document. The patent badge covers the following: Patent number, Date patent was issued, Date patent was filed, Title of the patent, Applicant, Inventor, Assignee, Attorney firm, Primary examiner, Assistant examiner, CPCs, and Abstract. The patent badge does contain a link to the full patent document (in Adobe Acrobat format, aka pdf). To download or print any patent click here.
Patent No.:
Date of Patent:
Mar. 12, 2013
Filed:
Jun. 04, 2009
Leslie R. Fine, Menlo Park, CA (US);
Matthew J. Fogarty, Palo Alto, CA (US);
Matthew Shore, San Mateo, CA (US);
Leslie R. Fine, Menlo Park, CA (US);
Matthew J. Fogarty, Palo Alto, CA (US);
Matthew Shore, San Mateo, CA (US);
Spigit, Inc., Pleasanton, CA (US);
Abstract
This disclosure provides a database, methods and associated software to implement and manage a prediction market. By collecting individual predictions as a set of predicted outcomes, such as a range of outcomes, the principles presented herein permit aggregation of overlapping predictions to generate a cumulative probability distribution, effectively using 'crowd wisdom' to build a probability model of an event. Through the use of 'roll-up' and “roll-down” techniques, this disclosure provides a way of applying new information not only to an event being predicted, but also to the outcomes of other, related events. Conversion to a common probability distribution format may be used to simplify and accelerate mathematical operations, easing the burden in quickly calculating and updating a cumulative probability model for events in each affected dimension in the predicted market. These teachings may be applied to a wide variety of applications, including gaming, blog and opinion sites, spreadsheet programs, and date, logistics, accounting and other forecasting tools.