Method and apparatus for determining ranked causal paths for faults in a complex multi-host system with probabilistic inference in a time series

Abstract

A method and apparatus are provided for determining that problems have occurred within a complex multi-host system and for identifying for each problem, sequences of causes and effects called a fault cause path, starting with a root cause. A probabilistic model representing the cause/effect relationships among potential system problems identifies the probability that a problem occurred in the system. Such failure probabilities may be determined based on aggregating, over a recent time interval, probability of failure values determined by the probabilistic model. Each fault cause path may have an associated probability of accuracy value reflecting the expected accuracy of the fault cause path relative to other fault cause paths. When more than one fault cause path is identified, the number and order of the fault cause paths may be ranked and displayed based on their probability of accuracy value.