System and method for developing a propensity model

Abstract

A technique is provided for developing a propensity model for customer behavior. Multiple biased samples of customer characteristics and results from past activities are established. Initial propensity models are created for each biased sample. The propensity models established for each biased sample are processed separately from the propensity models established for the other biased samples. A genetic algorithm is used to evolve the propensity models. A select number of propensity models that best fit their respective biased samples are compared to a validation sample that is unbiased. A select number of these propensity models that best fit the validation sample are cross-bred into the propensity models established for each biased sample. The propensity models for each biased sample are then processed again using the genetic algorithms. However, a number of elite propensity models are maintained in their original form and not evolved using the genetic algorithm. This cycle continues until a stopping criterion is reached.