Determination of point of sand production initiation in wellbores using residual deformation characteristics and real time monitoring of sand production

Abstract

Predicting sand production in a wellbore. A first set of characteristics is determined for a formation in the wellbore, wherein determining uses a plastic model of the formation, and wherein the first set of characteristics comprises a yield surface, a failure surface, a stress total strain, an elastic strain, and a plastic-strain relationship. A relationship among a second set of characteristics of the wellbore is determined using an effective stress model, wherein the second set comprises a drawdown pressure, a production rate, pore pressure, a temperature and a viscosity of a fluid in the wellbore, a fluid flow pressure in the wellbore, a drag force of fluid flow in the wellbore, and a type of fluid flow in the wellbore. A critical total strain is determined for the formation using the first set of characteristics and the relationship. The critical total strain is calibrated using a thick wall test.