Bayesian probability accuracy improvements for web traffic predictions

Abstract

Enhancements to Bayesian prediction models for network location traffic provide increased accuracy in web traffic predictions. The enhancements include implementing user advertising target queries to determine preferred edges of a Bayesian model, employing hierarchical data structures to cleanse training data for a Bayesian model, and/or augmenting existing data with new training data to enhance a previously constructed Bayesian model. Preferred edge enhancements for the Bayesian model utilize target attribute derived preferred edges and/or explicitly specified preferred edges. Training data is cleansed utilizing tag hierarchies that can employ parent-child relationships, ancestor relationships, and/or network location specific parameters. New training data can also be employed to adjust probabilities in a previously constructed Bayesian model. The new training data can be weighted differently than data represented by the previously constructed Bayesian model.