The patent badge is an abbreviated version of the USPTO patent document. The patent badge does contain a link to the full patent document.
The patent badge is an abbreviated version of the USPTO patent document. The patent badge covers the following: Patent number, Date patent was issued, Date patent was filed, Title of the patent, Applicant, Inventor, Assignee, Attorney firm, Primary examiner, Assistant examiner, CPCs, and Abstract. The patent badge does contain a link to the full patent document (in Adobe Acrobat format, aka pdf). To download or print any patent click here.
Patent No.:
Date of Patent:
Sep. 15, 2009
Filed:
Oct. 11, 2001
System and method for forecasting uncertain events with adjustments for participants characteristics
Kay-yut Chen, Santa Clara, CA (US);
Leslie R. Fine, Menlo Park, CA (US);
Bernardo A. Huberman, Palo Alto, CA (US);
Kay-Yut Chen, Santa Clara, CA (US);
Leslie R. Fine, Menlo Park, CA (US);
Bernardo A. Huberman, Palo Alto, CA (US);
Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P., Houston, TX (US);
Abstract
The present invention is a novel methodology for predicting future outcomes that uses small numbers of individuals participating in an imperfect information market. Determining their individual characteristics and performing a nonlinear aggregation of their predictions, provides a probability assessment of the future outcome of an uncertain event. In one embodiment of the present invention the aggregated prediction is compared to both the objective probability of its occurrence and the performance of the market as a whole. In one embodiment, the present invention includes a forecasting process comprising, running an information market, extracting participant characteristics, performing a query process, and aggregating the participant characteristics and results of the query process. The information market is designed to elicit characteristics of the participants include participant risk inclination and ability to analyze information provided in the information market.