Predicting values of a series of data

Abstract

Communications data such as traffic levels in a communications network is analysed using techniques adapted from the study of chaos. Future values of a series of communications data are predicted and an attractor structure is determined from the communications data. This enables the communications processes to be monitored, controlled and analysed. Action can be taken to modify the communications process using the results from the prediction and attractor structure to reduce costs and improve performance and efficiency. These methods may also be used for product data from manufacturing processes. An algorithm bank is compiled containing prediction algorithms suitable for different types of data series, including those exhibiting deterministic behaviour and those exhibiting stochastic behaviour. Recent past values of a data series are taken and assessed or audited in order to determine which of the algorithms in the bank would provide the optimal prediction. The selected algorithm is then used to predict future values of the data series. The assessment or auditing process is carried out in real time and a prediction algorithm selected using a “smart switch” such that different algorithms are used for different stages in a given series as required. This enables good prediction of data series which change in nature over time to be obtained.