Predictive models for infectious diseases

Abstract

The present disclosure provides systems and methods for predicting the occurrence of an outbreak of an infectious disease. One such method includes acquiring environmental risk factor data associated with a particular disease, wherein the environmental risk factor data corresponds to a particular geographic region; acquiring social risk factor data associated with the particular disease; applying a prediction algorithm to the environmental and social risk factor data to generate a disease risk model for generating at least a trigger prediction and a transmission prediction for a disease-causing pathogen at the particular geographic region; generating the trigger prediction by applying the disease risk model to a forecast of data for a first lead time for the particular geographic region; and/or generating the transmission prediction by applying the disease risk model to the transmission prediction for a second lead time for the particular geographic region. Other methods and systems are also provided.