Prediction of remaining useful life of an asset using conformal mathematical filtering

Abstract

A system determines that an asset of an engineering system has transitioned from a quasi-steady degradation stage to an accelerated degradation phase based on sensor measurements received from an asset. During the accelerated degradation phase, features are extracted from the sensor measurements that are indicative of wear of the asset. A conformal mathematical filter is applied to the features that causes the features to conform to a wear curve formulation associated with the asset. An output of the filter is resampled to form a noise-reduced signal. The noise-reduced signal is input into a sequence machine learning model. A loss function of the sequence machine learning model uses an increased penalty to overprediction and a relaxed penalty for underprediction. An output of the sequence machine learning model is used to predict a remaining useful life (RUL) of the asset.