One-pass approach to automated timeseries forecasting

Abstract

Herein are timeseries preprocessing, model selection, and hyperparameter tuning techniques for forecasting development based on temporal statistics of a timeseries and a single feed-forward pass through a machine learning (ML) pipeline. In an embodiment, a computer hosts and operates the ML pipeline that automatically measures temporal statistic(s) of a timeseries. ML algorithm selection, cross validation, and hyperparameters tuning is based on the temporal statistics of the timeseries. The result from the ML pipeline is a rigorously trained and production ready ML model that is validated to have increased accuracy for multiple prediction horizons. Based on the temporal statistics, efficiency is achieved by asymmetry of investment of computer resources in the tuning and training of the most promising ML algorithm(s). Compared to other approaches, this ML pipeline produces a more accurate ML model for a given amount of computer resources and consumes fewer computer resources to achieve a given accuracy.