System and method for evaluating motion prediction models

Abstract

A computing system can receive motion prediction data from a vehicle, where the motion prediction data is generated by a motion prediction model executing on the vehicle. Based on the motion prediction data, the system can determine predicted trajectories for a plurality of entities in a surrounding environment of the vehicle. The system can evaluate a prediction performance of the motion prediction model by (i) matching, for each respective entity of the plurality of entities, a predicted endpoint of each predicted trajectory of the set of predicted trajectories to one or more underlying lanes of the road segment, (ii) matching a ground truth future position of the entity to one or more underlying lanes of the underlying lane topology, and (iii) determining a distance along one or more lane segments between the lane(s) matched to the predicted endpoint and the lane(s) matched to the ground truth future position.