Multi-locational forecast modeling in both temporal and spatial dimensions

Abstract

Temporal and spatially integrated forecast modeling includes generating a plurality of forecast models for a plurality of short-term to long-term time periods for a plurality of locations. Temporally integrating the plurality of forecast models sequentially over the plurality of time periods for the plurality of locations and spatially integrating the temporally integrated plurality of forecast models for each location hierarchically over the geographic areas. The forecast models are autoregressive distributed lag models with different explanatory variables for the short-term and long-term forecast models. The temporally integrating includes recursively integrating the plurality of forecast models over the time periods from the short-term to the long-term time periods and the spatially integrating includes recursively integrating the temporally integrated plurality of forecast models hierarchically from larger size geographic areas to smaller size geographic areas. The method includes optimizing the resultant spatially and temporally integrated forecast model based on a plurality of constraints.