Automatic threat actor attribution based on multiple evidence

Abstract

Systems, methods, and related technologies for threat attribution are described. A method includes accessing network traffic to determine an incident based on a correlation of events as being associated with a same coordinated attack. The incident includes indicators of compromise (IoCs) and a Tactics, Techniques and Procedures (TTPs). The method also includes computing a first probability function based on the IoCs, wherein the first probability function comprises a first set of probability of attributions for a first list of known threat actors, and computing a second probability function based on the TTPs, wherein the second probability function comprises a second set of probability of attributions for a second list of known threat actors. The method also includes generating an aggregate probability function by combining the first probability function and the second probability function, using the aggregate probability function to derive attribution information, and storing the attribution information with the incident.