Systems and methods for motion forecasting and planning for autonomous vehicles

Abstract

Systems and methods are disclosed for motion forecasting and planning for autonomous vehicles. For example, a plurality of future traffic scenarios are determined by modeling a joint distribution of actor trajectories for a plurality of actors, as opposed to an approach that models actors individually. As another example, a diversity objective is evaluated that rewards sampling of the future traffic scenarios that require distinct reactions from the autonomous vehicle. An estimated probability for the plurality of future traffic scenarios can be determined and used to generate a contingency plan for motion of the autonomous vehicle. The contingency plan can include at least one initial short-term trajectory intended for immediate action of the AV and a plurality of subsequent long-term trajectories associated with the plurality of future traffic scenarios.