Determining causal models for controlling environments

Abstract

Methods, systems, and apparatus, including computer programs encoded on a computer storage medium, for determining causal models for controlling environments. One of the methods includes obtaining data specifying baseline probability distributions for each of a plurality of controllable elements; maintaining a causal model; repeatedly performing the following: selecting control settings for the environment based on the causal model and values for a particular internal parameter of the control system that are sampled from a range of possible values; selecting control settings for the environment based on the baseline probability distributions; monitoring environment responses to the control settings selected based on the causal model and the control settings selected based on the baseline probability distributions; determining, for each of the possible values, a measure of a difference between a current system performance and a baseline system performance; and updating how frequently each of the possible values is sampled.