Systems and methods for risk factor predictive modeling with model explanations

Abstract

An underwriting estimator predictive machine learning model receives as inputs a limited number of details about an applicant, and outputs an immediate underwriting estimate of risk class. A preliminary pre-screening review redirects applicants with one or more screening impairments to a human-in-the-loop quick quote process. Model inputs include estimator inputs data that are pre-selected from the dataset of impairments data after excluding the screening impairments from the dataset of impairments. The underwriting estimator model may incorporate alternative pathways that output individualized underwriting estimates for some applicants and cohort-level marginal distributions for other applicants. Model outputs also include explanation files providing interpretability of underwriting estimates. The explanation files may include additive feature attribution data and rule based natural language explanations. The underwriting estimator predictive model may apply random forest models with smoker and non-smoker components to model inputs.