Systems and methods for risk factor predictive modeling with model explanations

Abstract

A suite of fluidless predictive machine learning models includes a fluidless mortality module, smoking propensity model, and prescription fills model. The fluidless machine learning models are trained against a corpus of historical underwriting applications of a sponsoring enterprise, including clinical data of historical applicants. Fluidless models are trained by application of a random forest ensemble including survival, regression, and classification models. The trained models produce high-resolution, individual mortality scores. A fluidless underwriting protocol runs these predictive models to assess mortality risk and other risk attributes of a fluidless application that excludes clinical data to determine whether to present an accelerated underwriting offer. If any of the fluidless predictive models determines a high risk target, the applicant is required to submit clinical data, and an explanation model generates an explanation file for user interpretability of any high risk model prediction and the adverse underwriting decision.