System and method for forecasting leaks in a fluid-delivery pipeline network

Abstract

A system for forecasting leaks in a fluid-delivery pipeline network. The system identifies a subsystem in the pipeline network that comprises a plurality of topologically connected stations. The system accesses historical temporal sensor measurements of a plurality of variables of the stations that are directly connected and generates a temporal causal dependency model for a first control variable at the first station in the subsystem, based on the plurality of time series of sensor measurements of a second variable of the first station, and temporal delay characteristics of the plurality of time series of sensor measurements of the second variable at the stations directly connected to the first station. The system automatically calculates a normal operating value of the first control variable at the first station and the deviations between actual measured values and the normal operating value and determines a threshold deviation that indicates a leak event.