Neural network based prediction of competition behaviour in energy markets

Abstract

Sum of bid quantities (across price bands) placed by generators in energy markets have been observed to be either constant OR varying over a few finite values. Several researches have used simulated data to investigate desired aspect. However, these approaches have not been accurate in prediction. Embodiments of the present disclosure identified two sets of generators which needed specialized methods for regression (i) generators whose total bid quantity (TBQ) was constant (ii) generators whose total bid quantity varied over a few finite values only. In first category, present disclosure used a softmax output based ANN regressor to capture constant total bid quantity nature of targets and a loss function while training to capture error most meaningfully. For second category, system predicts total bid quantity (TBQ) of a generator and then predicts to allocate TBQ predicted across the various price bands which is accomplished by the softmax regression for constant TBQs.