Method for quantile probabilistic short-term power load ensemble forecasting, electronic device and storage medium

Abstract

The disclosure relates to a quantile probabilistic short-term power load ensemble forecasting method. The method includes: dividing historical power load data of a power system into a first data set and a second data set; performing bootstrap sampling on the first data set to generate multiple training data sets; training a neural network quantile regression model, a random forest quantile regression model and a gradient boosting regression tree regression model for the each training data set to obtain quantile forecasting models; establishing an optimization model with an objective function for minimizing the quantile loss for the second data set, and determining a weight for each of the quantile regression models, to calculate a power load ensemble forecasting model for predicting the power load in the power system.