Generating prediction models in accordance with any specific data sets

Abstract

Embodiments of the present invention provide systems, methods, and computer storage media for facilitating generation of prediction models. In some embodiments, a predetermined number of parameter value sets is identified. Each parameter value set includes a plurality of parameter values that represent corresponding parameters within a time series model. The parameter values can be selected in accordance with stratified sampling to increase a likelihood of prediction accuracy. The parameter value sets are input into a time series model to generate a prediction value in accordance with observed time series data, and the parameter value set resulting in a least amount of prediction error can be selected and used to generate a time series prediction model (ARIMA, AR, MA, ARMA) with corresponding model parameters, such as p, q, and/or k, subsequently used to predict values.