Method of malicious social activity prediction using spatial-temporal social network data

Abstract

Described is a system for predicting future social activity. The system extracts social activities from spatial-temporal social network data collected in a first time period ranging from hours to days to capture spatial structures of social activities in a graph network representation. A graph matching technique is applied over a set of spatial-temporal social network data collected in a second time period ranging from weeks to months to capture temporal structures of the social activities. A spatial-temporal structure of each social activity is represented as an activity core, where each activity core is defined as active nodes that participate in the social activity with a frequency over a predetermined threshold over the second time period. For each activity core, the system computes statistics of the social activity and uses the statistics to generate a prediction of future behaviors of the social activity.