The patent badge is an abbreviated version of the USPTO patent document. The patent badge does contain a link to the full patent document.
The patent badge is an abbreviated version of the USPTO patent document. The patent badge covers the following: Patent number, Date patent was issued, Date patent was filed, Title of the patent, Applicant, Inventor, Assignee, Attorney firm, Primary examiner, Assistant examiner, CPCs, and Abstract. The patent badge does contain a link to the full patent document (in Adobe Acrobat format, aka pdf). To download or print any patent click here.
Patent No.:
Date of Patent:
Nov. 03, 2020
Filed:
Jun. 30, 2016
China Electric Power Research Institute Company Limited, Beijing, CN;
Wanxing Sheng, Beijing, CN;
Yinglong Diao, Beijing, CN;
Keyan Liu, Beijing, CN;
Xiaoli Meng, Beijing, CN;
Lijuan Hu, Beijing, CN;
Kaiyuan He, Beijing, CN;
Dongli Jia, Beijing, CN;
Xueshun Ye, Beijing, CN;
Weijie Dong, Beijing, CN;
Jiangang Tang, Beijing, CN;
CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE COMPANY LIMITED, Beijing, CN;
Abstract
A method of predicting the operation reliability of a distribution network, the method being based on an ARIMA model. By establishing an ARIMA model predict a user monthly power outage count; convert a non-smooth element outage count time series to a smooth time series; perform regression on only lagged values of a dependent variable, and on current values and lagged values of a stochastic error term, so as to establish a user monthly power outage count model; according to a prediction result sample an outage point, and at the same time, taking into account a real time load operating state, establish a failure mode effects table based on TLOC criteria and PLOC criteria; and calculate a system recovery time for each instance of device outage, and finally obtain a whole-year reliability index.