Evaluating models that rely on aggregate historical data

Abstract

Systems and methods for model validation includes generating a first and a second time series of segmentation states for a data set representative of a simulated population, e.g., a collection of membership counts corresponding to respective segments of the simulated population. The first and second time series of segmentation states are generated by respectively processing the data set through a first and a second simulation each comprising iterative application of a plurality of event functions. The first and the second simulation differ in at least one capacity, e.g., one including a first event function configured with a first parameter, and the second not. Analysis of differences between the first and second time series may be compared to analysis of one of the time series using a subject model. The comparison is then used to validate the model or demonstrate accuracies, inaccuracies, and/or model bias with respect to a performance metric.