Method and system for forecasting

Abstract

The present invention provides a forecasting engine with the ability to minimize prediction error in a preferred direction. It comprises of a receiver configured to receive training data samples. In addition, the forecasting engine includes a building module configured to build a base learner model from the training data samples. In addition, the forecasting engine includes a custom error function that emphasizes prediction error along a pre-configured direction. In addition, the forecasting engine includes an error determination module configured to determine the prediction error made by the base learner model. In addition, the forecasting engine includes an error minimization module configured to construct a new model that has lesser prediction error than the base learner model, where prediction error is as defined by the custom error function. In addition, the forecasting engine includes an iteration module that manages multiple iterations of the error determination module and the error minimization module.