System and method for integrated and synchronized planning and response to defeat disparate threats over the threat kill chain with combined cyber, electronic warfare and kinetic effects

Abstract

An automated system and method provides for planning and response to disparate threats with combined kinetic (e.g., missile interceptor) and non-kinetic (e.g., cyber and electronic warfare) effects. The threat and effects inputs and the results of analysis tools that individually apply a single effect type to negate a threat vulnerability are normalized to a form and format ingestible by a Stochastic Math Model (SMM). The normalized inputs reflect the success/failure of the effect versus a threat vulnerability as a score, not a probability. The normalized results decompose a probability of defeat (Pdefeat) for an individual effect as a set of hierarchical parameters represented as probabilities. The SMM and analysis tools are iteratively run on the normalized inputs and results data, including either organically or synthetically injected variability of the data, to compute and visualize a Pdefeat with an associated confidence interval (CI) for each effect and the combined effects at each stage of the threat kill chain.