Network monitor and method for event based prediction of radio network outages and their root cause

Abstract

Various embodiments relate to a network monitor and method thereof for receiving a plurality of alarms during a baseline period from a plurality of network elements, establishing a baseline for at least one of the plurality of the network elements by determining a number of the plurality of alarms during the baseline period that occur during each of a plurality of sub-intervals within the baseline period, calculating a mean arrival rate for each of the plurality of alarms during the baseline period, generating a probability density function for an arrival rate for each of the plurality of alarms during the baseline period, calculating a probabilistic score for each of a plurality of alarms during a test period based on the probability density function for the arrival rate of each of the plurality of alarms during the baseline period, determining if the score for each of the plurality of alarms during the test period is greater than or equal to a probabilistic threshold, summing the number of the scores for each of the plurality of alarms during the test period that is greater than or equal to probabilistic threshold, generating a list by sorting the plurality of network elements in descending order based on the sum of the number of the scores for each of the plurality of alarms that generated a probabilistic score greater than or equal to probabilistic threshold or based on a sum of the probabilistic scores that are greater than or equal to probabilistic threshold, reporting first network elements of the generated list and reporting alarms for the first network elements of the generated list having probabilistic scores higher than the probabilistic threshold.