Methodology for building realistic numerical forward stratigraphic models in data sparse environment

Abstract

Disclosed is a method and system for identifying simulated basin results and associated input parameter values for simulation of geographic basins by a stratigraphic forward model simulation program that are most likely to represent the actual basin by treating inputs and outputs of the stratigraphic forward model simulation program in a unified manner. An embodiment may calculate probability distributions for input parameters and validation data, and calculate likelihoods of simulated basins as a combination of the combination of the probabilities of the input parameters used to create the simulated basin and of the combination of the probabilities simulation validation results of the simulated basin. An embodiment may then select most likely simulation model result basins based on the results having a higher calculated likelihood. The most likely simulated basins may be used for analysis of exploration and/or production decisions without the need for additional, expensive testing on the actual basin.