International Business Machines Corporation

Yea-Jane Chu

Chao Zhang

Jing-Yun Shyr

Ming Xie

Chun Hua Tian

Ning Sun

Sier Han

Feng Juan Wang

Jean-Francois Puget

Richard John Oswald

Xiu Fang Zhu

Embodiments include predicting transactions by an entity and identifying promotions to offer the entity. Aspects include parsing a plurality of event records corresponding to a plurality of entities respectively. Aspects also include identifying a sequence of events corresponding to the entity and discretizing time durations and event values of the sequence of events into discrete symbolic values. Aspects further include generating a temporal pattern of events in the sequence of events, the temporal pattern including a sequence of transaction-symbols representative of the time duration and the event value of the events in the sequence of events of the entity and predicting a next transaction based on the temporal pattern.

Transaction data analysis

Embodiments include predicting transactions by an entity and identifying promotions to offer the entity. Aspects include parsing a plurality of event records corresponding to a plurality of entities respectively. Aspects also include identifying a sequence of events corresponding to the entity and discretizing time intervals and event values of the sequence of events into discrete symbolic values. Aspects further include generating a temporal pattern of events in the sequence of events, the temporal pattern including a sequence of transaction-symbols representative of the time interval and the event value of the events in the sequence of events of the entity and predicting a next transaction based on the temporal pattern.

A computer-implemented method for prescriptive time-series forecasting, which combines both what-if analysis and goal-seeking analysis. The method comprises building a model for a target metric with a set of predictors, based on historical time-series data, and computing, using the model, a set of forecast values. Using the set of forecast values with respect to a forecasting period, both a set of goals for the target metric and a set of constraints for the predictors are analyzed. A set of updated forecasts based on the analyses with respect to the forecasting period is determined to meet the goals within the set of constraints. The updated set of forecasts is presented with respect to the forecasting period, e.g., using a table, a visualization, and/or an interactive user interface.

System and method for combining what-if and goal seeking analyses for prescriptive time series forecasting

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Chicago, IL, United States of America

Yea-Jane Chu