Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Yaniv Altshuler

Alex Paul Pentland

Nadav Aharony

Wei Pan

In exemplary implementations of this invention, mobile application (app) installations by users of one or more networks are predicted. Using network data gathered by smartphones, multiple 'candidate' graphs (including a call log graph) are calculated. The 'candidate' graphs are weighted by an optimization vector and then summed to calculate a composite graph. The composite graph is used to predict the conditional probabilities that the respective users will install an app, depending in part on whether the user's neighbors have previously installed the app. Exogenous factors, such as the app's quality, may be taken into account by creating a virtual candidate graph. The conditional probabilities may be used to select a subset of the users. Signals may be sent to the subset of users, including to recommend an app. Also, the probability of successful &#x201c;trend ignition&#x201d; may be predicted from network data.

Methods and apparatus for prediction and modification of behavior in networks

In exemplary implementations of this invention, one or more computer processors receive electronic data indicative of, or compute (i) at least three different topologies of a network and (ii) a level of network performance of a task for each of the different topologies, respectively. The processors also calculate (i) a cascade probability for each of the different topologies, respectively, (ii) a curve indicative of correlation between the cascade probabilities and levels of network performance, and (iii) an optimal cascade probability which optimizes the level of network performance. A topological change in the network is produced (or its likelihood is increased). The topological change makes or would make the cascade probability closer to the optimal cascade probability. The processors output control signals (i) to make the topological change or (ii) to communicate an incentive for the topological change to an electronic node device in the network.

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Ramat Ishai, Israel

Yaniv Altshuler