International Business Machines Corporation

Xiaoxuan Zhang

Soumyadip Ghosh

Ramesh Natarajan

Jonathan R Hosking

Shivaram Subramanian

Shivaram Subramaniam

Jayant R Kalagnanam

Mark Steven Squillante

Jonathan R M Hosking

Dmitriy A Katz-Rogozhnikov

A predictive-control approach allows an electricity provider to monitor and proactively manage peak and off-peak residential intra-day electricity usage in an emerging smart energy grid using time-dependent dynamic pricing incentives. The daily load is modeled as time-shifted, but cost-differentiated and substitutable, copies of the continuously-consumed electricity resource, and a consumer-choice prediction model is constructed to forecast the corresponding intra-day shares of total daily load according to this model. This is embedded within an optimization framework for managing the daily electricity usage. A series of transformations are employed, including the reformulation-linearization technique (RLT) to obtain a Mixed-Integer Programming (MIP) model representation of the resulting nonlinear optimization problem. In addition, various regulatory and pricing constraints are incorporated in conjunction with the specified profit and capacity utilization objectives.

Managing time-substitutable electricity usage using dynamic controls

Systems and methods for modeling and forecasting cyclical demand systems in the presence of dynamic control or dynamic incentives. A method for modeling a cyclical demand system comprises obtaining historical data on one or more demand measurements over a plurality of demand cycles, obtaining historical data on incentive signals over the plurality of demand cycles, constructing a model using the obtained historical data on the one or more demand measurements and the incentive signals, wherein constructing the model comprises specifying a state-space model, specifying variance parameters in the model, and estimating unknown variance parameters.

System and method for modeling and forecasting cyclical demand systems with dynamic controls and dynamic incentives

A streams platform is used. Multiple streams of electricity usage data are received, each from an electrical meter providing periodic updates to electrical usage for devices connected to the electrical meter. Weather information is received corresponding to locations where the electrical meters are. Real-time predictive modeling of electricity demand is performed based on the received multiple streams of electricity usage data and the received weather information, at least by performing: updating a state space model for electrical load curves using the usage data from the streams and the weather, wherein the updating uses current load observations for the multiple streams for a current time period; and creating forecast(s) for the electricity demand. The forecast(s) of the electricity demand are output. Appliance-level predictions may be made and used, and substitution effects and load management functions may be performed.

Real-time forecasting of electricity demand in a streams-based architecture with applications

System and method of solving, in a single-period, an optimal dispatching problem for a network of energy generators connected via multiple transmission lines, where it is sought to find the lowest operational cost of dispatching of various energy sources to satisfy demand. The model includes traditional thermal resources and renewable energy resources available generation capabilities within the grid. The method considers demand reduction as a virtual generation source that can be dispatched quickly to hedge against the risk of unforeseen shortfall in supply. Demand reduction is dispatched in response to incentive signals sent to consumers. The control options of the optimization model consist of the dispatching order and dispatching amount energy units at generators together with the rebate signals sent to end-users at each node of the network under a demand response policy. Numerical experiments based on an analysis of representative data illustrate the effectiveness of demand response as a hedging option.

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Park Ridge, NJ, United States of America

Xiaoxuan Zhang