Siemens Energy Global Gmbh & Co. Kg

Siemens Aktiengesellschaft

Sebastian Schmitz

Kai Kadau

Eberhard Deuker

Christian Amann

Björn Beckmann

Sesha Gundavarapu

Boris Ferdinand Kock

Suhas Karkada Suresh

Georg Rollmann

Hanno Gottschalk

Francesco Radaelli

Markus Vöse

Mohamed Saadi

Marcel Zwingenberg

A computer-implemented method for probabilistic quantification of probability of failure of a component, especially a gas turbine component, which during operation is subjected to cyclic stress, wherein the component is divided virtually in one or more domains. The method includes: providing or determining for at least one domain, a domain probability density function for crack initiation and providing or determining for the considered domains a domain probability density function for subsequent crack propagation induced failure. Determining for each considered domain a combined domain cumulative distribution function for failure or its probability density function is done by convoluting either both the considered domain probability density functions for crack initiation induced failure and the respective domain probability density function for subsequent crack propagation induced failure, or their integral function. Alternatively, numerical methods for said component failure probabilities include domain-based Monte-Carlo schemes.

Computer-implemented method for the probabilistic estimation of a probability of failure of a component, a data processing system, a computer program product and a computer-readable storage medium

A method, device, and system of estimation fatigue life of a technical system are disclosed. The method includes computing a lifing probability distribution for at least one component of the technical system based on material property scatter data and at least one damage scenario associated with the at least one component. Further, the method includes determining a time-damage accumulation for the at least one component by combining plurality of damage scenario and damage accumulation rules for the at least one component. Furthermore, the method includes determining a spatial-damage accumulation and a cumulative time-damage accumulation for each of a plurality of regions in the at least one component. The method also includes determining an integral damage including integral of the spatial-damage accumulation and the cumulative time-damage accumulation for the at least one component based on simulation of the at least one damage scenario and conditional probabilities for the at least one damage scenario. The fatigue life of the technical system is estimated by determining a probability of fatigue failure of the technical system by combining the integral damage and predicted damage scenarios for a plurality of components in the technical system based on the law of total probability.

Estimating fatigue life of technical systems

A method for operating a component of predetermined geometry &#x3a9; that is cyclically loaded during operation, wherein a probability of failure P is determined for the component taking account of distributions of failure times, which are caused by deviations in material properties, the component is operated depending on the determined probability of failure P, wherein at least one maintenance time is set for the component, in particular depending on the determined probability of failure P.

Method for operating a component that is cyclically loaded during operation

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Berlin, Germany

Sebastian Schmitz