International Business Machines Corporation

Rafal Bigaj

Lukasz Grzegorz Cmielowski

Wojciech Sobala

Maksymilian Erazmus

Bartlomiej Tomasz Malecki

Pawel Slowikowski

Jinho Hwang

Larisa Shwartz

Frank Bagehorn

Amol Bhaskar Mahamuni

Marcos Vinicius L Paraiso

Vidhya Shankar Venkatesan

Dorothea W Wiesmann Rothuizen

Marek Oszajec

Blazej Rafal Rutkowski

Maria Hanna Oleszkiewicz

A computer implemented method for detecting regression in a relationship between a performance indicator and AI metrics includes calculating a baseline threshold of regression degradation according to a historical correlation coefficient corresponding to a performance indicator and a set of AI metrics, calculating a current correlation coefficient according to one or more current data records, identifying a correction constant according to the current correlation coefficient and a desired correlation coefficient, generating a function to predict correction constants corresponding to performance indicator data and the set AI metrics, determining a delta correction constant for each AI metric of the set of AI metrics, applying the determined delta correction constant to the set of AI metrics, and identifying a subset of AI metric outliers according to the calculated baseline threshold and the determined delta correction constant.

Regression detection and correction in relationships between performance indicators and ai metrics

A computer-implemented method and computer program product for predicting an impact of an adjustment to a machine learning model to key performance indicators, and a forecasting engine. The computer-implemented method may comprise receiving a proposed adjustment to a machine learning model, calculating, using a regression machine learning model to ingest the proposed adjustment, a set of value components for a key performance indicator (KPI), calculating a plurality of results for the KPI using the set of value components, automatically determining whether the plurality of results exceeds a performance threshold, and recommending the proposed adjustment based on the determination.

Predicting performance of machine learning models

Embodiments of present disclosure relate to a method for predicting a performance of a machine learning module (ML-Module). The method may comprise detecting a change in the performance of the ML-Module over a period of time on the basis of labeled input datasets for the ML-Module and detecting a change in a predicted performance of the ML-Module over the period of time computed using the drift module. A value of a first key figure is determined, the value of the first key figure indicating a correlation between the change in the performance of the ML-Module and the change in the predicted performance of the ML-Module. A signal is provided, the signal indicating the value of the first key figure.

Continuous learning process using concept drift monitoring

An approach for selecting a transformed prediction model for estimating the uncertainty of prediction associated with machine learning is disclosed. The approach determines a function corresponding to a prediction interval based on one or more datasets and calculates one or more sets of prediction interval parameters associated with the function based on training a set of regression models with the one or more datasets. The approach creates one or more transformed predictions based on the one or more sets of parameters and based on a logical distance and selects a transformed prediction model based on a mean absolute correlation from the one or more transformed predictions. Furthermore, the approach outputs the selected transformed prediction model.

Standard error of prediction of performance in artificial intelligence model

Systems, computer-implemented methods, and computer program products that can facilitate refinement of a predicted event based on explainability data are provided. According to an embodiment, a system can comprise a memory that stores computer executable components and a processor that executes the computer executable components stored in the memory. The computer executable components can comprise an interpreter component that identifies a probable cause of a predicted event based on explainability data. The computer executable components can further comprise an enrichment component that executes a diagnostic analysis based on the probable cause.

Refinement of a predicted event based on explainability data

Identifying a change of an indicator value for a system of interdependent entities includes determining the indicator value, logging input data for the system of interdependent entities, logging scoring payload data and related results of a machine-learning model used as part of the system of interdependent entities, wherein the scoring payload data are derived from the input data, clustering the input data into a number of clusters resulting in defined clusters, determining metric values of the machine-learning model by mapping each of the defined clusters onto the scoring payload data resulting in a vector of metric values, re-determining the indicator value for each defined cluster, resulting in a vector of re-calculated indicator values, and determining correlation matrix values for a matrix between the vector of re-determined indicator values and the vector of the metric values for each of the defined clusters.

Finding root cause for low key performance indicators

A computer-implemented method, system and computer program product for analyzing test result failures using artificial intelligence models. A first machine learning model is trained to differentiate between a bug failure and a test failure within the test failures based on the failure attributes and historical failures. The failure type for each failed test in test failure groups is then determined using the first machine learning model. The failed tests in the test failure groups are then clustered into a set of clusters according to the failure attributes and the determined failure type for each failed test. A root cause failure for each cluster is identified based on the set of clusters and the failure attributes. The root cause of an unclassified failure is predicted using a second machine learning model trained to predict a root cause of the unclassified failure based on identifying the root cause failure for each cluster.

Analyzing test result failures using artificial intelligence models

A dataset is received that is for processing by a machine learning model. A scoring payload for the dataset and that regards the machine learning model is also received. A set of features of the machine learning model is determined by analyzing the scoring payload. The scoring payload is structured in accordance with the set of features such that the structured scoring payload is ready for analysis for a monitor of the machine learning model.

Machine learning model monitoring

An overall performance metric of a computer system may be determined for each bin of the set of analysis bins. In case one or more bins of the set of analysis bins do not have at least a predefined minimum number of records, a new set of analysis bins may be redefined by joining analysis bins of the set of analysis bins. For each bin of the redefined set of bins a machine learning (ML) performance metric of the ML model may be computed. The ML performance metric may be estimated for the set of analysis bins using the ML performance metrics of the redefined bins. The computer system may be configured based on a correlation over the set of analysis bins between the computed overall performance metric and the ML performance metric.

Machine learning based data monitoring

A first machine learning model processes a set of inputs to generate a first set of results. Based on that first set of results, a quality control range is calculated. A second machine learning model calculates a mean accuracy of a second set of results, based on the set of inputs. A determination of whether the mean accuracy of the second set of results is within the quality control range is made, and a user is notified of that determination.

Evaluating surrogate machine learning models

A method, system, and computer program product for correlation detection between artificial intelligence (AI) transactions. The method stores a set of transaction records associated with an AI decision engine. Each transaction record has a set of record characteristics. The method assigns the set of transaction records to a set of batches on the set of record characteristics. A set of batch characteristics are determined for a batch of the set of batches. The method determines one or more correlations among the set of batch characteristics. The one or more correlations are compared with one or more threshold batches. The method determines, from the one or more correlations and the comparing, an impact of one or more recommendations of the AI decision engine. The one or more recommendations are defined by the set of transaction records.

Multi-dimensional record correlations

Aspects of the present invention provide an approach for exposing payloads from non-integrated machine learning systems. A generic binding identifier is established to represent a machine learning (ML) system among a set of non-integrated learning systems. A generic subscription identifier is established to represent a deployed model in the ML system. Payload data including a user request, a response, the generic binding identifier, and the generic subscription identifier are received from the ML system and stored in a database for later analysis to identify any issues related to the deployed model.

Exposing payload data from non-integrated machine learning systems

A method and a computer program product are used generating an index of a scoring payload dataset. Correlation coefficients for correlations between input data values and output data values of the machine learning model provided by the scoring payload datasets as well as performance data values of the processes provided by process datasets are calculated. Features of which feature values are used as input data values are ranked according to their importance using the correlation coefficients. For the features of a set of highest-ranking features feature value sets with feature values of the respective features are selected from the scoring payload datasets and a database index of the selected feature value sets is generated.

Indexing based on feature importance

An ML root model format having a root model definition, is converted into an ML target model format not having the root model definition. A learning system is assigned to the root model definition that is convertible to the machine learning target model format. A new version of the root model definition is ported from the ML root model to the format of the ML target model to generate a new version of the machine learning target model after a learning iteration of the learning system. Quality limits are determined using an X control chart method based on a cross-validation of fold results generated during a validation of the new version of the machine learning root model. A quality metric value of the new version of the ML target model is evaluated against the quality threshold values of the new version of the ML root model.

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Cracow, Poland

Rafal Bigaj