Oracle International Corporation

Prashanth Kini

Marcos M Campos

Boriana L Milenova

Richard Tauriello

Charlie Sum

Mihaela Dediu

Kevin Timoney

Andres V Lubomirsky

An incident predictor system is described herein for predicting impactful incidents in which server computer system operations fail or perform poorly. According to one embodiment of the invention, the incident prediction system trains a generalized linear model (GLM) to predict when a system health indicator will reach a level that represents an incident for the server system.

Predictive incident management

A method is provided for detecting when users are being adversely impacted by poor system performance. A system health indicator is determined that is based on the amount of work that is blocked waiting for each of a set of an external events and combined with a heuristic that is based on the number of users waiting for the work to complete. The system health indicator is compared to a threshold such that an alert is generated when the system health indicator crosses the threshold. However, the system health indicator is designed so that an alert is only generated when a significant user base is or will in the near future experience a problem with the system. Furthermore, the system health indicator is designed to vary smoothly to maintain its suitability for the application of predictive technology.

Continuous system health indicator for managing computer system alerts

Growing community of inventors

San Mateo, CA, United States of America

Prashanth Kini