Caterpillar Inc.

Prashant M Rai

Kyle J Cline

Gavril A Giurgiu

Keith Atkinson

Sridhar Ramaswamy

A method for forecasting part sales, including collecting sales data for a part over a series of sales time periods and collecting activity data for a plurality of activity types over a series of activity time periods for a plurality of machines including the part. A mean activity time can be calculated for each activity type for each time period in the series of activity time periods based on the collected activity data. An activity probability density function of the mean activity times for each activity type is created and a machine learning model is trained using an expectation of activity derived from the probability density functions for each activity type and the collected sales data. Machine activity data for a set of machines can be fed into the trained model to derive a part sales probability density function for the set of machines.

Systems and methods for probabilistic parts forecasting based on machine utilization patterns

A method for determining machine usage severity including collecting repair data for multiple machines over a repair time period and telematics data from sensors on the machines over an activity time period. The method can include calculating predictive features from the telematics data for each of the machines and creating a severity model based on the predictive features. The severity model can be validated with the predictive features and corresponding repair data for each of the machines. The method can include receiving telematics data from sensors on a deployed machine for a deployed period of time, calculating a plurality of machine predictive features from the telematics data, and feeding the machine predictive features into the severity model to calculate a severity score for the deployed machine. The method can include displaying a recommendation to perform maintenance on the deployed machine when the machine usage severity score exceeds a selected threshold.

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Champaign, IL, United States of America

Prashant M Rai