Microsoft Technology Licensing, LLC

Prasanth Pulavarthi

David Maxwell Chickering

Tarek Najm

Arungunram Chandrasekaran Surendran

Viswanath Vadlamani

Phani Vaddadi

Munirathnam Srikanth

Ashis Kumar Roy

A procedural inference system is described herein that infers procedural knowledge from various data sources to help a user complete one or more tasks for which the data sources provide information. The system understands users' queries, identifies a task at hand, provides recommendations on the steps to take and the agents to use based on a knowledge base of tasks and agents, and provides the fabric to determine which different agents can work together to help the user accomplish a task. Tasks can be started on one device and completed on another seamlessly. Users are able to finish complex, multi-step tasks efficiently, without trial and error or data reentry. Thus, the procedural inference system provides a generalized framework that helps users to complete tasks using already available data and does not ask each data provider to invest in infrastructure to build dedicated task information systems.

Inferring procedural knowledge from data sources

Enhancements to Bayesian prediction models for network location traffic provide increased accuracy in web traffic predictions. The enhancements include implementing user advertising target queries to determine preferred edges of a Bayesian model, employing hierarchical data structures to cleanse training data for a Bayesian model, and/or augmenting existing data with new training data to enhance a previously constructed Bayesian model. Preferred edge enhancements for the Bayesian model utilize target attribute derived preferred edges and/or explicitly specified preferred edges. Training data is cleansed utilizing tag hierarchies that can employ parent-child relationships, ancestor relationships, and/or network location specific parameters. New training data can also be employed to adjust probabilities in a previously constructed Bayesian model. The new training data can be weighted differently than data represented by the previously constructed Bayesian model.

Bayesian probability accuracy improvements for web traffic predictions

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Prasanth Pulavarthi