Electric Power Research Institute Incorporated

Mostafa Khadem

Ali Ipakchi

Robert W Colley

Frank J Alexandro, Jr

A method and apparatus for predicting a signal value for a target element within a multi-element system is disclosed. The method includes modeling the multi-element system by defining fundamental physical relationships between the target element and other elements within the system. The resultant system model is in the form of a set of coupled non-linear differential equations. These differential equations are then approximated into linearized models about an operating point or series of operating points corresponding to the system behavior. The linearized differential equations are then subjected to a coupling analysis. The coupling analysis is employed to determine dynamic coupling between instruments. The coupling analysis assesses the degree of observability of the system and associated elements. The coupling analysis may be based upon observability tests, gramian analyses, or modal analyses. Based upon the coupling analysis, coupled elements are selected. The coupled elements correspond to system elements which are strongly coupled to the target element. A neural network is then trained using previous process values corresponding to the coupled elements. Thereafter, present operating system values corresponding to the coupled elements are fed to the trained neural network. The trained neural network processes the present operating system values to render a predicted value for the target element. This predicted value is then compared to the present system value to determine whether the target element is operating correctly.

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Mostafa Khadem