Sas Institute Inc.

Michele Angelo Trovero

Michael James Leonard

Mahesh V Joshi

Phillip Mark Helmkamp

Rajib Nath

Dmitry V Golovashkin

Iman Vasheghani Farahani

Richard Patrick Fahey

Steven Christopher Mills

David Bruce Elsheimer

Yung-Hsin Chien

Jerzy Michal Brzezicki

Jennifer Leigh Sloan Beeman

Byron Davis Biggs

Yue Li

Javier Delgado

Vilochan Suresh Muley

Youngjin Park

Macklin Carter Frazier

Timothy Patrick Haley

Ron Travis Hodgin

Jingrui Xie

Randy Thomas Solomonson

Peter Dillman

Sangmin Kim

Nilesh Jakhotiya

Caiqin Wang

Matthew Wayne Simpson

Ran Bi

Kritika Misra

A system described herein can generate a graphical user interface (GUI) for a piece of forecasting software. The GUI can include graphical nodes arranged on a drag-and-drop canvas to define an overall forecasting pipeline. The graphical nodes can include a hierarchical modeling node that enables a user to define a time series hierarchy. The hierarchical modeling node can also enable separate level pipelines to be customized for each level of the time series hierarchy. The level pipelines can form subparts of the overall forecasting pipeline. The system can then execute the level pipelines to generate multiple forecasts, where each forecast corresponds to a respective level of the time series hierarchy. In some examples, the system can execute a reconciliation process on the forecasts to generate reconciled forecasts. Each reconciled forecast can correspond to one of the forecasts. The system may then generate one or more visualizations of the reconciled forecasts.

Hierarchical modeling node for visual forecasting

In one example, a computer system can generate a graphical user interface (GUI) for forecasting software including a drag-and-drop canvas with a set of rearrangeable nodes defining a forecasting pipeline. The computer system can detect a user interaction for attaching an external-language execution node to the pipeline, which can be used to insert custom code defined using an external programming language. The computer system can receive the custom code. The computer system can receive a user input to initiate execution of the pipeline. The computer system can generate wrapped custom code by augmenting the custom code with additional program code including shared variables. The computer system can provide the wrapped custom code to a set of execution threads configured to execute the wrapped custom code as part of the pipeline to generate one or more forecasts. The computer system can output the forecasts in the GUI.

External-language execution node for visual forecasting

A parallel processing technique can be used to expedite reconciliation of a hierarchy of forecasts on a computer system. As one example, the computer system can receive forecasts that have a hierarchical relationship with respect to one another. The computer system can distribute the forecasts among a group of computing nodes by time point, so that all data points corresponding to the same time point in the forecasts are assigned to the same computing node. The computing nodes can receive the datasets corresponding to the time points, organize the data points in each of the datasets by forecast to generate ordered datasets, and assign the ordered datasets to processing threads. The processing threads (across the computing nodes) can then execute a reconciliation process in parallel to one another to generate reconciled values, which can be output by the computing nodes.

Parallel processing techniques for expediting reconciliation for a hierarchy of forecasts on a computer system

A pipeline system for time-series data forecasting using a distributed computing environment is disclosed herein. In one example, a pipeline for forecasting time series is generated. The pipeline represents a sequence of operations for processing the time series to produce modeling results such as forecasts of the time series. The pipeline includes a segmentation operation for categorizing the time series into multiple demand classes based on demand characteristics of the time series. The pipeline also includes multiple sub-pipelines corresponding to the multiple demand classes. Each of the sub-pipelines applies a model strategy to the time series in the corresponding demand class. The model strategy is selected from multiple candidate model strategies based on predetermined relationships between the demand classes and the candidate model strategies. The pipeline is executed to determine the modeling results for the time series.

Demand classification based pipeline system for time-series data forecasting

The operation of a machine can be controlled by performing reconciliation using a cluster of nodes. In one example, a node can receive parent timestamped data from a parent dataset and child timestamped data from child datasets that are children of the parent dataset in a hierarchical relationship. The parent timestamped data and the child timestamped data can relate to an operational characteristic of the machine. The node can generate computer processing-threads. Each computer processing-thread can solve one or more respective reconciliation problems between a parent data point that has a particular timestamp in the parent timestamped data and child data points that also have the particular timestamp in the child timestamp data to generate a reconciled dataset. An operational setting of the machine can then be adjusted based on the reconciled dataset.

Controlling operation of a machine by performing reconciliation using a distributed cluster of nodes

Systems and methods for forecasting ratios in hierarchies are provided. Hierarchies can be formed that have components, including a numerator time series with values from input data, a denominator time series with values from input data, and a ratio time series of the numerator time series over the denominator time series. The components can be modeled to generate forecasted hierarchies. The forecasted hierarchies can be reconciled so that the forecasted hierarchies are statistically consistent throughout nodes of the forecasted hierarchies.

Devices for forecasting ratios in hierarchies

Systems and methods for reconciling a forecast are presented. A method can be used that receives a plurality of hierarchical forecast data sets. An output child data set including an index value and a status indicator representing an unprocessed state is generated. A particular parent data set forecast is identified from a parent data set. Locations for a group of one or more child data set forecasts that are children of the particular parent data set forecast are identified and accessed. A reconciliation operation is performed, a particular child data set forecast is adjusted and stored in a record, and a status indicator for the record is modified.

Computer-implemented systems and methods for forecast reconciliation

Systems and methods for reconciling a forecast for a dimension based upon data that is associated with the dimension. A method can be used that includes generating a plurality of forecasts for the dimensions such that the forecast of a first dimension is generated independently of a forecast of a second dimension. The forecast of the first dimension has a constraint that is influenced by the forecast of the second dimension. A reconciliation is performed between the forecast of the first dimension and the forecast of the second dimension in order to determine how the constraint of the first dimension's forecast is to influence the first dimension's forecast.

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Dunellen, NJ, United States of America

Michele Angelo Trovero