Oracle International Corporation

Spigit, Inc.

Matthew Shore

Anurag Windlass Gupta

Kumar Ramaiyer

John Xiao

Matthew John Fogarty

Leslie R Fine

Anurag Gupta

This disclosure provides a database, methods and associated software to implement and manage a prediction market. By collecting individual predictions as a set of predicted outcomes, such as a range of outcomes, the principles presented herein permit aggregation of overlapping predictions to generate a cumulative probability distribution, effectively using 'crowd wisdom' to build a probability model of an event. Through the use of 'roll-up' and &#x201c;roll-down&#x201d; techniques, this disclosure provides a way of applying new information not only to an event being predicted, but also to the outcomes of other, related events. Conversion to a common probability distribution format may be used to simplify and accelerate mathematical operations, easing the burden in quickly calculating and updating a cumulative probability model for events in each affected dimension in the predicted market. These teachings may be applied to a wide variety of applications, including gaming, blog and opinion sites, spreadsheet programs, and date, logistics, accounting and other forecasting tools.

Prediction market database, related methods, devices and systems

Methods and apparatus for updating a database using a multi-dimensional data model in which data corresponding to the database are organized in multi-dimensional data blocks. Each data block has summary information associated therewith corresponding to a current state of evolution of the associated data block. Dependency information is maintained in the data model which identifies data dependencies within and among the data blocks. A list of change entries identifies changes made to the data blocks and times at which the changes were made. A request to apply a change entry to a data block is received. The change entry is applied to the data block, including generating a dependency list of data blocks whose data depends directly or indirectly from the updated data block. The data blocks in the dependency list are processed in accordance with a dependency update algorithm to update the data blocks in the dependency list.

Methods and apparatus for maintaining consistency during analysis of large data sets

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San Mateo, CA, United States of America

Matthew Shore