Siemens Energy Global Gmbh & Co. Kg

Markus Vöse

Kai Kadau

Christian Amann

Sebastian Schmitz

Francesco Radaelli

A computer-implemented method for probabilistic quantification of probability of failure of a component, especially a gas turbine component, which during operation is subjected to cyclic stress, wherein the component is divided virtually in one or more domains. The method includes: providing or determining for at least one domain, a domain probability density function for crack initiation and providing or determining for the considered domains a domain probability density function for subsequent crack propagation induced failure. Determining for each considered domain a combined domain cumulative distribution function for failure or its probability density function is done by convoluting either both the considered domain probability density functions for crack initiation induced failure and the respective domain probability density function for subsequent crack propagation induced failure, or their integral function. Alternatively, numerical methods for said component failure probabilities include domain-based Monte-Carlo schemes.

Computer-implemented method for the probabilistic estimation of a probability of failure of a component, a data processing system, a computer program product and a computer-readable storage medium

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Berlin, Germany

Markus Vöse