Chinese Academy of Sciences

Lijun Su

Xin Xia

Yuanjun Jiang

Xiaobo Hu

The present disclosure relates to a prediction method and system for an initiation volume of a debris flow slope source. The prediction method includes: dividing a debris flow source slope to be predicted into soil columns; determining a positional relationship between a selected central soil column and six adjacent soil columns around; calculating a most unfavorable sliding surface of the soil column and an unbalanced force on the sliding surface according to an upper bound theorem of a limit analysis; determining whether the most unfavorable sliding surface is unstable; determining a mode and a size of a force exerted by an unstable soil column on a surrounding soil column according to a break status of a connection bond of a lateral tensile stress of the central soil column; and finally determining whether the soil column is fluidized, and predicting an initiation volume of the debris flow source slope.

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Chengdu, China

Lijun Su