Equifax Inc.

Lewis Jordan

Matthew Turner

Allan Joshua

Michael McBurnett

Finto Antony

Mark Day

Stephen Miller

Certain embodiments involve generating or optimizing a neural network for generating analytical or predictive outputs. The neural network can be generated using a relationship between various predictor variables and an outcome (e.g., a condition's presence or absence). The neural network can be used to determine a relationship between each of the predictor variables and a response variable. The neural network can be optimized by iteratively adjusting the neural network such that a monotonic relationship exists between each of the predictor variables and the response variable. The optimized neural network can be used both for accurately determining response variables using predictor variables and determining adverse action codes for the predictor variables, which indicate an effect or an amount of impact that a given predictor variable has on the response variable. The neural network can be used to generate adverse action codes upon which consumer behavior can be modified to improve the response variable score.

Optimizing neural networks for generating analytical or predictive outputs

Certain aspects involve training tree-based machine-learning models for computing predicted responses and generating explanatory data for the models. For example, independent variables having relationships with a response variable are identified. Each independent variable corresponds to an action or observation for an entity. The response variable has outcome values associated with the entity. Splitting rules are used to generate the tree-based model, which includes decision trees for determining relationships between independent variables and a predicted response associated with the response variable. The tree-based model is iteratively adjusted to enforce monotonicity with respect to representative response values of the terminal nodes. For instance, one or more decision trees are adjusted such that one or more representative response values are modified and a monotonic relationship exists between each independent variable and the response variable. The adjusted model is used to output explanatory data indicating relationships between independent variable changes and response variable changes.

Training tree-based machine-learning modeling algorithms for predicting outputs and generating explanatory data

Systems and methods for automated path-based recommendation for risk mitigation are provided. An entity assessment server, responsive to a request for a recommendation for modifying a current risk assessment score of an entity to a target risk assessment score, accesses an input attribute vector for the entity and clusters of entities defined by historical attribute vectors. The entity assessment server assigns the input attribute vector to a particular cluster and determines a requirement on movement from a first point to a second point in a multi-dimensional space based on the statistics computed from the particular cluster. The first point corresponds to the current risk assessment score and the second point corresponds to the target risk assessment score. The entity assessment server computes an attribute-change vector so that a path defined by the attribute-change vector complies with the requirement and generates the recommendation from the attribute-change vector.

Automated path-based recommendation for risk mitigation

Systems and methods for automated path-based recommendation for risk mitigation are provided. An entity assessment server, responsive to a request for a recommendation for modifying a current risk assessment score of an entity to a target nsk assessment score, accesses an input attribute vector for the entity and clusters of entities defined by historical attribute vectors. The entity assessment server assigns the input attribute vector to a particular cluster and determines a requirement on movement from a first point to a second point in a multi-dimensional space based on the statistics computed from the particular cluster. The first point corresponds to the current risk assessment score and the second point corresponds to the target risk assessment score. The entity assessment server computes an attribute-change vector so that a path defined by the attribute-change vector complies with the requirement and generates the recommendation from the attribute-change vector.

In some aspects, a computing system can generate and optimize a neural network for risk assessment. The neural network can be trained to enforce a monotonic relationship between each of the input predictor variables and an output risk indicator. The training of the neural network can involve solving an optimization problem under a monotonic constraint. This constrained optimization problem can be converted to an unconstrained problem by introducing a Lagrangian expression and by introducing a term approximating the monotonic constraint. Additional regularization terms can also be introduced into the optimization problem. The optimized neural network can be used both for accurately determining risk indicators for target entities using predictor variables and determining explanation codes for the predictor variables. Further, the risk indicators can be utilized to control the access by a target entity to an interactive computing environment for accessing services provided by one or more institutions.

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Atlanta, GA, United States of America

Lewis Jordan