Hewlett-packard Development Company, L.p.

Spigit, Inc.

Leslie R Fine

Bernardo A Huberman

Kay-Yut Chen

Alan Hersh Karp

Alex Xin Zhang

Kemal Guler

Hsiu-Khuern Tang

Ren Wu

Fereydoon Safai

Tongwei Liu

Matthew John Fogarty

Matthew Shore

Kevin Lai

This disclosure provides a database, methods and associated software to implement and manage a prediction market. By collecting individual predictions as a set of predicted outcomes, such as a range of outcomes, the principles presented herein permit aggregation of overlapping predictions to generate a cumulative probability distribution, effectively using 'crowd wisdom' to build a probability model of an event. Through the use of 'roll-up' and &#x201c;roll-down&#x201d; techniques, this disclosure provides a way of applying new information not only to an event being predicted, but also to the outcomes of other, related events. Conversion to a common probability distribution format may be used to simplify and accelerate mathematical operations, easing the burden in quickly calculating and updating a cumulative probability model for events in each affected dimension in the predicted market. These teachings may be applied to a wide variety of applications, including gaming, blog and opinion sites, spreadsheet programs, and date, logistics, accounting and other forecasting tools.

Prediction market database, related methods, devices and systems

A computer-implemented automated decision support system for designing an auction for a given item includes a structure extractor that estimates unknown elements of market structure of the auction based on auction characteristics data extracted from historical auctions for similar items and a bidding model matching the extracted auction characteristics data. The decision support system also includes a bidding behavior predictor that predicts bidding behaviors of bidders in the auction based on the estimated unknown elements of market structure and characteristics of the auction. In addition, the system includes an optimizer that employs an evaluation criterion to generate an evaluation of the auction based on (1) the estimated unknown elements of market structure and (2) the predicted bidding behavior of bidders. A method of providing an automated auction analysis is also described.

Automated decision support system for designing auctions

Embodiments of the present invention relate to a system and method for allocating resources in a distributed computational system. Embodiments of the present invention may comprise a plurality of user agent programs, each adapted to place a bid on behalf of a user for computational resources based on a preference for a desired set of the computational resources. Additionally, embodiments of the present invention may comprise an auctioneer program adapted to receive the bid from each of the plurality of user agent programs and to determine entitlement to the computational resources based on an evaluation of the bids. Further, embodiments of the present invention may comprise a bank program adapted to manage records relating to currency corresponding to each of the user agent programs and to facilitate transfer of currency based on an outcome of the evaluation of the bids.

System and method for allocating resources in a distributed computational system using proportional share auctions

The present invention is a novel methodology for predicting future outcomes that uses small numbers of individuals participating in an imperfect information market. Determining their individual characteristics and performing a nonlinear aggregation of their predictions, provides a probability assessment of the future outcome of an uncertain event. In one embodiment of the present invention the aggregated prediction is compared to both the objective probability of its occurrence and the performance of the market as a whole. In one embodiment, the present invention includes a forecasting process comprising, running an information market, extracting participant characteristics, performing a query process, and aggregating the participant characteristics and results of the query process. The information market is designed to elicit characteristics of the participants include participant risk inclination and ability to analyze information provided in the information market.

System and method for forecasting uncertain events with adjustments for participants characteristics

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Menlo Park, CA, United States of America

Leslie R Fine