Microsoft Technology Licensing, LLC

Lawrence Andrew Koch

Ashis Kumar Roy

David Earl Heckerman

David Maxwell Chickering

Alan Geller

Jeffery C Beman

A system and method for estimating available payload inventory are provided. An advertisement delivery system generates a set of atomic market segment arrays from target market criteria for one or more advertisement campaigns to be served. The set of arrays is incremented corresponding to advertisement requests matching the target market criteria. The atomic market segment is processed to select an advertisement and to predict future capacity and manage inventory.

System and method for estimating available payload inventory

Data slices of historical time series are leveraged to facilitate in more accurately predicting like data slices of future time series. Different predictive models are employed to detect outliers in different data slices to enhance the accuracy of the predictions. The data slices can be temporal and/or non-temporal attributes of a data set represented by the historical time series. In this manner, for example, a historical time series for a network location can be sliced temporally into one hour time periods as a function of a day, a week, a month, a year, etc. Outliers detected in these data slices can then be mitigated utilizing the predictive time series model by replacing the outlier with the expected value. The mitigated historical time series can then be employed in a predictive model to predict future web traffic for the network location (and advertising revenue values) with a substantial increase in accuracy.

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Seattle, WA, United States of America

Lawrence Andrew Koch