Hewlett-packard Development Company, L.P.

Kay-Yut Chen

Kemal Guler

Hsiu-Khuern Tang

Ren Wu

Fereydoon Safai

Tongwei Liu

Leslie R Fine

Raymond G Beausoleil

Bernardo A Huberman

Li Zhang

Alan Hersh Karp

Bin Zhang

William John Munro

Ehud Chatow

Tad H Hogg

Xin Zhang

Jerry Zhaolin Shan

Alex Xin Zhang

Andrew E Fitzhugh

Cipriano A Santos

Shailendra K Jain

Maria Teresa Gonzalez Diaz

Udi Chatow

A report indicating a user-reported probability of a successful outcome is received. A behavior and information model is estimated based on the report. The behavior and information model includes a behavior model component having a bias parameter and a consistency parameter. The behavior and information model includes an information model component having a first user-believed probability of a successful outcome and a second user-believed probability of a successful outcome. The behavior and information model is used to yield a model-determined probability of a successful outcome that more accurately reflects a probability of a successful outcome than the user-reported probability of a successful outcome does.

Behavior and information model to yield more accurate probability of successful outcome

A system and method for acquiring document services is disclosed.

System and method for acquiring document services

A method of determining the behavioral outcome resulting from a business rule includes the step of defining at least one player, business rules, and an environment that defines actions that the player can take in accordance with the business rules. The definitions are translated into a codified script. The behavioral outcome resulting from player-selected actions during execution of the codified script are determined.

Method and apparatus for modeling a business processes

Planning a publication includes receiving information about an event, accessing a database of profiles that relate in general to content usage, and using a search engine to match the profiles with the event information to estimate parameters for using content for the event. The publication is planned according to the estimated usage parameters.

Publication planning based on estimated content usage parameters

A computer-implemented automated decision support system for designing an auction for a given item includes a structure extractor that estimates unknown elements of market structure of the auction based on auction characteristics data extracted from historical auctions for similar items and a bidding model matching the extracted auction characteristics data. The decision support system also includes a bidding behavior predictor that predicts bidding behaviors of bidders in the auction based on the estimated unknown elements of market structure and characteristics of the auction. In addition, the system includes an optimizer that employs an evaluation criterion to generate an evaluation of the auction based on (1) the estimated unknown elements of market structure and (2) the predicted bidding behavior of bidders. A method of providing an automated auction analysis is also described.

Automated decision support system for designing auctions

The present invention is a novel methodology for predicting future outcomes that uses small numbers of individuals participating in an imperfect information market. Determining their individual characteristics and performing a nonlinear aggregation of their predictions, provides a probability assessment of the future outcome of an uncertain event. In one embodiment of the present invention the aggregated prediction is compared to both the objective probability of its occurrence and the performance of the market as a whole. In one embodiment, the present invention includes a forecasting process comprising, running an information market, extracting participant characteristics, performing a query process, and aggregating the participant characteristics and results of the query process. The information market is designed to elicit characteristics of the participants include participant risk inclination and ability to analyze information provided in the information market.

System and method for forecasting uncertain events with adjustments for participants characteristics

One embodiment of the present invention provides a method and system that computes the optimal level of the reserve price for an auction, with respect to a multiplicity of possible evaluation criteria that the end user of the system may specify. In one embodiment, structural elements characterizing the auction situation are estimated from bid data available on past auctions. The estimated structural elements are then used in the formulation of the user's expected payoff as a function of the reserve price. This objective function is then optimized to obtain the best level of the reserve price. In one embodiment, this method is implemented by a process executed on a computer system, under the control of software and firmware directing the operation of its processors and components. In one embodiment, a computer readable medium causes a computer system to execute the steps in a process for implementing the method.

Method and system for setting an optimal reserve price for an auction

A quantum approach to the economically significant n-player public goods or similar n-player game requires only two-particle entanglement and is thus much easier to implement than games requiring n-particle entanglements. Two-particle entanglements are sufficient to give near optimal expected payoff when players use a simple mixed strategy for which no player can benefit by making different choices. This mechanism can also address some heterogeneous preferences among the players. Quantum games in accordance with the invention can be simulated on classical computers without requiring impractical amounts of processing power for large numbers of players.

Games using pair-wise entanglements

A method and apparatus for determining one or more prices that maximizes revenue for a given demand curve. For determining a single price that maximizes revenue, a geometric analysis of the demand curve is used to find a price that gives a first angle that is equal to a second angle. The first [] and second [] angles are calculated using a tangent line that is tangent to the demand curve at the price and reference lines that pass through the demand curve at the price. When the first angle is equal to the second angle [], the determined price optimizes revenue for the product represented by the demand curve.

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Santa Clara, CA, United States of America

Kay-Yut Chen