Bank of America Corporation

Kaloyan Mihaylov

Harsh Singhal

Timothy John Breault

Naveen Gururaja Yeri

Agus Sudjianto

Jie Chen

William Anthony Nobili

Arun Pinto

Sandi Setiawan

Aijun Zhang

Benhong Zhang

Zhe Zhang

Michael Chorba

Daniel Hudson

Jocelyn Sikora

Kiran Vuppu

Hungien Wang

Magali F Van Belle

Wei Wei

Methods, computer readable media, and apparatuses for evaluating models using forecast error attribution are presented. According to one or more aspects, one or more input values corresponding to one or more input variables may be forecast. One or more results of a modeling function may be calculated using the one or more forecasted input values. Thereafter, actual performance data corresponding to the modeling function may be received. One or more holdout values for the modeling function may be calculated using the actual performance data. Subsequently, a graph that includes the one or more results of the modeling function, the actual performance data, and the one or more holdout values for the modeling function may be plotted. In some arrangements, the one or more holdout values for the modeling function may be indicative of one or more assumption errors made with respect to the one or more forecasted input values.

Evaluating models using forecast error attribution

A data driven and forward looking risk and reward appetite methodology for consumer and small business is described. The methodology includes account level historical data collection for customers associated with accounts as part of a portfolio. The account level historical data is segmented into groups of customers with similar revenues and loss characteristics. Segmented data is decomposed into seasoning, vintage, and cycle effects. Statistical clusters are formed based upon the data and effects. A simulation is applied to the statistical clusters and prediction data is generated. A simulation strategy to forecast and simulate revenue and loss volatility is developed. Efficient frontier curves of risk (e.g., return volatility) and reward (e.g., expected return) are created for the current portfolio under various economic scenarios.

Risk and reward assessment mechanism

A data driven and forward looking risk and reward appetite methodology for consumer and small business is described. The methodology includes customer segmentation to create pools of homogeneous assets in terms of revenue and loss characteristics, forward looking simulation to forecast expected values and volatilities of revenue and loss, and risk and reward optimization of the portfolio. One methodology used for modeling revenue and loss is a generalized additive effect decomposition model to fit historical data. Based on the model, a segmentation procedure is performed, which allows for creation of groups of customers with similar revenue and loss characteristics. An estimation procedure for the model is developed and a simulation strategy to forecast and simulate revenue and loss volatility is developed. Efficient frontier curves of risk (e.g., return volatility) and reward (e.g., expected return) are created for the current portfolio under various economic scenarios.

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Kaloyan Mihaylov